August 2023 - BITCOIN ETF ON THE HORIZON
In This Month's Issue You Will Find:
Curated Content
Top Trends 2023: 6 Trends To Watch
News Stories: 21
Podcast : 1
Tweets: 3
Books: 1
Not Gonna Make It Events: 3
Market & On-Chain Analysis
Price, Volatility, Market Sentiment Analysis
Network Health
Valuation Models
Top Trends Im Watching
Nation State Level Interest In Bitcoin
Big Tech Integrations Into The Bitcoin Network
Regulatory Headwinds For Access To Bitcoin Products & Services
Bitcoin Market Structure Consolidation
Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity & Utilization Growth
Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval
News Stories
SEC Delays Spot Bitcoin ETF Decision For All Applicants Including BlackRock, Fidelity | (Coindesk)
Robinhood Wallet Expands Crypto Offering, Add Bitcoins | (Decrypt)
Crypto Bank SEBA Wins In Principle Approval To Operate in Hong Kong | (Coindesk)
Twitter Obtains License To Store, Transfer, And Trade Bitcoin | (Nasdaq)
Grayscale Wins Appeal Against SEC Overturing Its Decision on Bitcoin ETF | (NoBSBitcoin)
Bitcoin Adoption In Argentina Is Outpacing El Salvador | (The Block)
Hong Kong Welcomes First Licensed Retail Crypto Exchange, HashKey | (Cointelegraph)
JPMorgan Predicts Limited Downside for Bitcoin | (Bloomberg)
Treasury, IRS Release Proposed Crypto Tax Reporting Rules | (The Block)
Oman Is Set to Invest Over $1.1Bn in Privately Owned Bitcoin Mining Facilities | (NoBSBitcoin)
Blockstream Hoards Crypto Mining Rigs On Bitcoin Comeback Bet | (Bloomberg)
Bitgo Bucks Crypto Downturn To Raise Funding at $1.75 Billion Valuation | (Bloomberg)
Coinbase Gets Approval To Offer Crypto Futures To Eligible US Customers | (AP News)
Crypto Custodian Prime Trust Files For Bankruptcy Protection | (The Wall Street Journal)
Pro-Bitcoin Candidate Javier Milei Unexpectedly Leads In Presidential Voting In Argentina | (Coindesk)
Bitcoin Mining Council Survey Confirms Year-On-Year Improvements In Sustainable Power And Technological Efficiency In H1 2023 | (Bitcoin Mining Council)
Private Equity Giant David Rubenstein Makes The Case for Bitcoin | (Coindesk)
Banks Face Stepped Up Scrutiny from Fed Over Crypto Activities | (Bloomberg)
Binance Receives License To Offer Bitcoin, Digital Asset Services In El Salvador | (Coindesk)
Nomura Wins Full License To Offer Bitcoin Services In Dubai | (Bloomberg)
Binance Starts Japan Exchange In Renewed Effort to Tap Nation’s Bitcoin Market | (Bloomberg)
Podcasts
What Bitcoin Did: Money Printing & the Debt Spiral | (What Bitcoin Did)
Tweets
2023 Q2 Update On Global Monetary Base | (Twitter)
Updated Bitcoin ETF Application Approval Timeline | (Twitter)
Binance's Lightning Node Keeps On Growing | (Twitter)
Books
Broken Money: Why Our Financial System Is Failing Us and How We Can Make It Better | (Amazon)
Not Gonna Make It Events
SEC Charges LA-Based Media and Entertainment Co. Impact Theory For Unregistered Offering of NFTs | (SEC)
DEA Accidentally Sends $50,000 In Drug Proceeds To Crypto Scammer | (Forbes)
Sam Bankman-Fried Jailed Ahead Of Trial | (Coindesk)
Market Analysis
It is important to note that the price of Bitcoin is highly volatile and can fluctuate significantly in a short period of time. As a result, it is crucial for investors to monitor the market price and other related metrics to make informed investment decisions.
The current price of Bitcoin stands at $25,954.87. This represents the current value of a single bitcoin. The market capitalization, which is at $505 Billion represents the total value of all bitcoins in circulation. The -12.02% change in the past 30 days in the price of Bitcoin and the market capitalization suggests a downtrend. This can be influenced by various factors such as economic news, geopolitical events, and overall market sentiment.
Support Levels:
$25,307.00: Context - May 2022 Low
$24,039.00: Context - 50 Week Moving Average
Resistance Levels:
$27,654.00: Context - 200 Week Moving Average
$32,271.00: Context - July 2023 High
Volatility provides an understanding of market stability and helps investors make decisions based on their risk tolerance. Market sentiment indicators provide insight into the overall sentiment of the market, influenced by various factors such as news events and market participant opinions.
Currently, the 30-day and 180-day volatility indices stand at 2.15% and 2.33% respectively, reflecting a 64.36% increase in 30-day volatility. The Fear and Greed Index is presently at 40, indicating that the market sentiment is fearful.
On-Chain Analysis:
On-chain analysis provides a fundamental perspective on the health and activity of the Bitcoin network by examining various metrics that provide insight into the underlying health of the network, its level of adoption and usage, and its potential for future growth.
Regarding network health, 19,472,636 bitcoins are in circulation with a set limit of 21 million. The hash rate, a representation of network computational power, is 368 Exahash showing a -1.16% change over the past month. There are 968,985 daily active addresses, and daily transactions have risen by 6.98%, currently numbering 433,684.
Valuation Models:
It's important to note that on-chain valuation models for Bitcoin are still in their early stages of development and should be used with caution. While they have shown promising results in the past, they are not a perfect indicator of future market performance.
Overvalued Levels:
32x Thermocap Multiple: $88,043
3x Realized Price: $60,865
Undervalued Levels:
8x Thermocap Multiple: $22,010
Realized Price: $20,288
The Thermocap multiple, which measures the value of Bitcoin relative to the total miner revenue, currently stands at 9.44, with a -13.18% change in the last month.
The MVRV ratio, which measures the market value of Bitcoin relative to its realized value, is currently at 1.28. The realized price for Bitcoin, or the result of dividing the realized capitalization by the total coin supply, is currently $20,288.42, with a -0.34% change in the last 30 days.
In conclusion, Bitcoin's value is volatile, demonstrated by a -12.02% price change in the past month. The prevailing market scenario is bearish, with declines in hash rate, the number of active addresses, and transactions. On-chain valuation models imply that the market is currently undervalued.
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