October 2023 - BITCOIN TURNS 15
In This Month's Issue You Will Find:
Curated Content
Top Trends 2023: 6 Trends To Watch
News Stories: 22
Podcast : 1
Tweets: 3
Books: 1
Not Gonna Make It Events: 3
Market & On-Chain Analysis
Price, Volatility, Market Sentiment Analysis
Network Health
Valuation Models
Top Trends Im Watching
Nation State Level Interest In Bitcoin
Big Tech Integrations Into The Bitcoin Network
Regulatory Headwinds For Access To Bitcoin Products & Services
Bitcoin Market Structure Consolidation
Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity & Utilization Growth
Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval
News Stories
Jack Dorsey’s Block Is Quietly Shipping Test Versions of its New Bitkey Bitcoin Wallet | (Bitcoin Magazine)
Volcano Energy Partners with Luxor to Launch First El Salvador Mining Pool | (No BS Bitcoin)
Uzbekistan Issues Ban on Individual Bitcoin Mining Operations | (No BS Bitcoin)
BitVM: Compute Anything on Bitcoin | (No BS Bitcoin)
ZeroSync Implements First STARK-Based ZkClient for Bitcoin | (The Block)
Announcing LND 0.17 beta: Tapping into Taproot | (Lightning)
The Lightning Network Grew by 1212% in 2 Years| (Blog River)
SEC Won’t Appeal Loss in Grayscale Case, Boosting the Odds GBTC Can Become a Bitcoin ETF | (Coindesk)
Blackrock CEO Larry Fink Seeing Client Demand for Bitcoin Around the World, Thinks The Rally is About a Flight To Quality | (Coindesk)
Block Completes the First Prototype of MDK Hashboard | (No BS Bitcoin)
California Enacts Its Own Version of BitLicense | (No BS Bitcoin)
Taproot Assets on Mainnet: A New Era for Bitcoin and Beyond | (Lightning)
SEC Chair Gensler Says Agency Staff Doing Work on Multiple Bitcoin ETF Filings | (The Block)
JPMorgan Expects Bitcoin ETF Approval Within Months | (The Block)
FinCEN Seeks to Impose Strict Surveillance Requirements onto Broadly Defined Class of 'Bitcoin Mixers' | (No BS Bitcoin)
BlackRock Preps for Bitcoin ETF Launch, Lines Up Seed Investor and Reveals Ticker | (Decrypt)
MicroBT Debuts Whatsminer M60 Series | (No BS Bitcoin)
Our Data in WSJ Article on Hamas Crypto Fundraising Was Misrepresented, Says Surveillance Firm Elliptic | (No BS Bitcoin)
Lightspark Introduced Travel Rule Compliant LNURL for Regulated Entities | (No BS Bitcoin)
Marathon Digital Plans to Raise $750M via Hybrid Equity Offering | (No BS Bitcoin)
TBD, Circle, Linux Foundation Announced New Initiative for Decentralized Identity and Open Payment Standards | (No BS Bitcoin)
GAO Finds Controversial SEC Guidance is Subject to Congressional Oversight | (CoinTelegraph)
Podcasts
Why a Spot Bitcoin ETF Will Probably Launch No | (Apple Podcast)
Tweets
15 Facts About the Bitcoin White Paper on its 15th Birthday | (Twitter)
Options Market Makers in Bitcoin are Driving BTC Spot Prices Up | (Twitter)
Bitcoin is the Best Performing Asset 10 of the Last 13 Years | (Twitter)
Books
Going Infinite: The Rise and Fall of a Tycoon | (Amazon)
Not Gonna Make It Events
Reddit Winding Down Blockchain-Based Community Points | (Tech Crunch)
Sam Bankman-Fried Trial Tracker | (The Block)
NYAG Files Complaint Against Gemini, Genesis DCG, Michael Moro, and Barry Silbert Over Earn Product and Covering Up $1 Billion Hole | (The Block)
Market Analysis
It is important to note that the price of Bitcoin is highly volatile and can fluctuate significantly in a short period of time. As a result, it is crucial for investors to monitor the market price and other related metrics to make informed investment decisions.
The current price of Bitcoin, which stands at $34,660, represents the current value of a single bitcoin. The market capitalization, which stands at $676 Billion, represents the total value of all bitcoins in circulation. The 24% increase in the past 30 days in the price of Bitcoin and the market capitalization suggests a bullish trend, which can be influenced by various factors such as economic news, geopolitical events, and overall market sentiment.
Support Levels:
$32,227: Context - May 2022 High
$28,588: Context - 200 Week Moving Average
Resistance Levels:
$42,978: Context - January 2021 High
Volatility provides an understanding of market stability and helps investors make decisions based on their risk tolerance. Market sentiment indicators provide insight into the overall sentiment of the market, influenced by various factors such as news events and market participant opinions.
Currently, the 30-day and 180-day volatility indices are at 2.23% and 1.93% respectively, showing an increase of 66.86% in the short-term (30-day volatility). The Fear and Greed Index is presently at 66, indicating that the market sentiment is greedy.
On-Chain Analysis:
On-chain analysis provides a fundamental perspective on the health and activity of the Bitcoin network by examining various metrics that provide insight into the underlying health of the network, its level of adoption and usage, and its potential for future growth.
As for the Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis, currently, there are approximately 19,529,493 bitcoins in circulation, with a finite limit of 21 million. The network's hash rate currently stands at 460.63 EH/s, having increased by 12.43% over the past 30 days. There were around 1,044,499 active addresses noted, with a daily transaction count of 437,895, which has seen a significant increase of 36.76% in the last 30 days. The total transaction value for the past day totaled up to approximately $4.73 billion, increasing by a hefty 102.66% over the last 30 days.
Valuation Models:
It's important to note that on-chain valuation models for Bitcoin are still in their early stages of development and should be used with caution. While they have shown promising results in the past, they are not a perfect indicator of future market performance.
Overvalued Levels:
32x Thermocap Multiple: $90,462
3x Realized Price: $61,851
Undervalued Levels:
8x Thermocap Multiple: $22,615
Realized Price: $20,617
The Thermocap multiple measures the value of Bitcoin relative to the total miner revenue, providing insight into the asset's price premium with respect to total revenue received by miners. The Thermocap multiple stands at 12. with a 30-day change of 22%.
The MVRV ratio, which measures the market value of Bitcoin relative to its realized value, is currently at 1.38. The realized cap is currently at $402 Billion and the realized price for bitcoin is $20,617 with a 30-day change of 1.6%
In conclusion, the value of Bitcoin is highly volatile, which is why it is crucial for those involved in trading or investing to keep track of various metrics that provide valuable insight into the current state of the bitcoin market. The current market scenario has shown strong signs of positive change, with an increase of 24% in price over the past 30 days and a noticeable uptrend in hash rate, active addresses numbers, and daily transactions, signaling potential bullish momentum. While on-chain valuation models suggest that the market is still undervalued compared to its potential economic value.
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