September Bitcoin Recap

September 2023 | BITCOIN BLOCKS IN FOCUS

September 2023 - BITCOIN BLOCKS IN FOCUS

In This Month's Issue You Will Find:

Curated Content

• Top Trends 2023: 6 Trends To Watch

• News Stories: 12

• Podcast : 1

• Tweets: 3

• Books: 1

• Not Gonna Make It Events: 3

Market & On-Chain Analysis

• Price, Volatility, Market Sentiment Analysis

• Network Health 

• Valuation Models

Top Trends Im Watching

• Nation State Level Interest In Bitcoin

• Big Tech Integrations Into The Bitcoin Network

• Regulatory Headwinds For Access To Bitcoin Products & Services

• Bitcoin Market Structure Consolidation

• Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity & Utilization Growth

• Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval

News Stories

1. Marathon Digital Mined an Invalid Block at 809478 on Mainnet | Twitter

2. Block Report: Bitcoin Survey 2023 | Block XYZ

3. Coinbase Receives Regulatory Approval to Enable Retail Perpetual Futures | Coinbase Blog

4. SEC Moves to Delay Decision on Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF into Next Year | The Block

5. MicroStrategy Acquires Additional 5445 Bitcoins and Now Holds 158,245 BTC | MicroStrategy

6. Bitcoin Mining Rig Maker Bitmain Plans to Invest 54 Million in Bankrupt Core Scientific | The Block

7. Everything to Know About Bitmain’s Latest ASIC Miner S21| Hashrate Index

8. UTXO Live Oracle: Get Bitcoin Price Without Any Exchange or 3rd Party| No BS Bitcoin

9. Zerosync’s Header Chain Verifier: Instant Bitcoin Header Chain Verification in Your Browser | No BS Bitcoin

10. F2Pool Returned 20 BTC Overpayment | No BS Bitcoin

11. Paxos Identified as 'Fat Finger' Entity in $500,000 Bitcoin Fee Mistake | The Block

12. Brian Armstrong: Bitcoin Most Important Crypto Asset, Confirms Coinbase Lightning Integration | The Block

Podcasts

1. TIP 574: Broken Money 1/2 w/ Lyn Alden | Apple Podcasts

Tweets

1. Arkham Has Now Identified $25B of Coinbase Bitcoin Reserves (~1M BTC) On-Chain. | Twitter

2. Bitcoin is The Result of Development and Research Spanning Decades | Twitter

3. Bitcoin vs TCP/IP Adoption | Twitter

Books

1. A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 | Amazon

Not Gonna Make It Events

1. Ripple Won’t Go Forward with Acquisition of Fortress Trust | No BS Bitcoin

2. Three Arrows Capital Co-founder Su Zhu Apprehended in Singapore | The Block

3. Mark Cuban Loses $860,000 of Crypto to Phishing Attack | The Block

Market Analysis

It is important to note that the price of Bitcoin is highly volatile and can fluctuate significantly in a short period of time. As a result, it is crucial for investors to monitor the market price and other related metrics to make informed investment decisions.

The current price of Bitcoin, which stands at $27,950, represents the current value of a single bitcoin. The market capitalization, which stands at $545,060,830,633, represents the total value of all bitcoins in circulation. The 8.32% increase in the past 30 days in the price of Bitcoin and the market capitalization suggests a positive trend, which can be influenced by various factors such as economic news, geopolitical events, and overall market sentiment.

Support Levels:

• $25,307.00: Context - May 2022 Low

• $24,039.00: Context - 50 Week Moving Average

Resistance Levels:

• $28,051.00: Context - 200 Week Moving Average

• $28,839.00: Context - January 2021 Low

• $32,271.00: Context - May 2022 High

Volatility provides an understanding of market stability and helps investors make decisions based on their risk tolerance. Market sentiment indicators provide insight into the overall sentiment of the market, influenced by various factors such as news events and market participant opinions.

Currently, the 30-day and 180-day volatility indices are at 1.33 and 1.90 respectively, showing a decrease of 37.64% in the short-term (30-day volatility). The Fear and Greed Index is presently at 50, indicating that the market sentiment is neutral.

On-Chain Analysis:

On-chain analysis provides a fundamental perspective on the health and activity of the Bitcoin network by examining various metrics that provide insight into the underlying health of the network, its level of adoption and usage, and its potential for future growth.

On-chain analysis provides a fundamental perspective on the health and activity of the Bitcoin network. There are 19,501,180 bitcoins currently in circulation. The hash rate, a measure of computational power, currently stands at 409,691,234 ExaHash with a 30-day change of 9.18%. We are seeing a healthy number of daily active addresses at 921,731, though the number of daily transactions has decreased by 23.52%, with a current count of 320,190. The daily total transaction value is also down 44.68%, reaching $2,336,226,679.

Valuation Models:

It's important to note that on-chain valuation models for Bitcoin are still in their early stages of development and should be used with caution. While they have shown promising results in the past, they are not a perfect indicator of future market performance.

Overvalued Levels:

• 32x Thermocap Multiple: $89,232

• 3x Realized Price: $60,878

Undervalued Levels:

• 8x Thermocap Multiple: $22,308

• Realized Price: $20,292

The Thermocap multiple measures the value of Bitcoin relative to the total miner revenue, providing insight into the asset's price premium with respect to total revenue received by miners. The Thermocap multiple stands at 10.02 with a 30-day change of 6.92%.

The MVRV ratio, which measures the market value of Bitcoin relative to its realized value, is currently at 1.38. The realized cap is currently at $395,736,881,487 and the realized price for bitcoin is $20,292.97 with a 30-day change of 0.05%.

In conclusion, the value of Bitcoin is volatile, which is why it is crucial to monitor the various metrics that provide insight into the market. The current market scenario is positive, with an 8.32% increase in price over the past 30 days and a 9.18% increase in the hash rate. The number of active addresses and transactions, however, are down, signaling a decrease in on-chain activity. While on-chain valuation models suggest that the market is currently fairly valued.

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